Were the educational gains in Texas a "Miracle" or a "Mirage?" Was Bush telling us the truth?

ABSTRACT: The educational gains in Texas have been George W. Bush's only major accomplishment as governor. That is why they are the cornerstone of Bush's campaign and why education appears prominently at the top of his Internet home page. On closer examination, however, no credible evidence could be found to support such claims. 

Existing research indicates that nothing special has been happening in Texas. State exam results (TAAS), which were used as the primary basis for exaggerated performance gains, have been shown to be untrustworthy by two independent research papers published in peer reviewed journals [Haney, Klein]. There is no evidence of a sustained increase in academic proficiency in Texas.

There is evidence that the introduction of test-taking skills into the curriculum (due to the implementation of a "high stakes" testing program in 1994), has caused a one-time increase in one score on one trusted exam (1996 4th grade math) that skewed the interpretation of results in an earlier RAND paper. The earlier RAND paper just noted the effect. It did not attempt to explain the cause (which can be easily explained by a variety of causes). 

The lead author of the earlier RAND paper also confirmed that since 1994, the data in Texas has been flat relative to the rest of the country. The recent RAND paper confirmed that the anomaly observed in the earlier paper did not translate into sustained academic improvement, as would have been evident in an increase in NAEP and SAT scores. In short, students in Texas are just better at taking state tests than students in other parts of the country where test-taking skills aren't taught. 

These results are confirmed by other trusted sources. NAEP scores, SAT scores, and Texas state's own TASP scores all show that academic performance has not improved under Bush or, as noted by Haney, has dramatically declined. Only 50% of minority students in Texas have been progressing from grade 9 to high school graduation since Bush was elected in1994. The New York Times reported that in February 1999, officials with the University of Texas system presented a report to a Texas House subcommittee complaining of "marked declines in the number of students who are prepared academically for higher education." And there are many other, equally shocking, statistics.

We could find no trustworthy data to support Bush's exaggerated claims being made today that students dramatically improved on his watch. 

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If he can't deliver on his "top priority" issue, how can we expect him to deliver on "less important" issues?

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Nor has an explanation been forthcoming that fits the facts (in particular the latest RAND study which would be extremely difficult to challenge) and has survived rigorous peer review that explains how gains could be happening in Texas while every other independent indicator has remained flat or declined. For example, it was proposed by the Republican campaign that SAT scores remained flat in Texas because more students were taking the test. However, the percentage of students taking the test has not increased (as noted in The New York Times), nor has the racial mix changed.

The earlier RAND paper did note five factors that were statistically shown to improve test scores. These factors did not match what was happening in Texas and in fact, the governor actively campaigned against several of them and most of them are missing from the governor's current proposed plan. Ironically, these factors match the programs that Bush's opponent, Al Gore, has proposed for America.

Therefore, Bush's biggest accomplishment as governor is that nothing special happened in education on his watch, and in some instances, such as preparation for college, things declined dramatically. This is a far cry from the claims being made today by the presidential candidate.

We conclude that if Governor Bush is to continue to claim that he has done more than maintain the status quo in education, then he immediately present data to that effect that survives independent peer review. 

Failing that, the Governor should be honest with the American people and admit that there were no educational gains in Texas under his governorship that can be claimed based on any known trusted data.

Also, based on the alarmingly high teacher shortage and teacher turnover statistics in Texas, we recommend that, instead of providing tax cuts for the rich and opposing pay raises for teachers, you pay teachers a decent wage. Simple economic theory, commonly known as "supply and demand," suggests that if you increase teacher pay, you can eliminate the shortage of teachers and reduce teacher turnover in Texas. We don't understand the rationale of providing tax cuts for the wealthy when education, your number one priority, is seriously underfunded with 43 percent of Texas teachers planning to leave or are considering leaving teaching.

Governor Bush, you say you trust us. But why should we trust you? The scientific data is overwhelming. Will you stop the deception and admit to the American people that your only major accomplishment as governor over 6 years is that things in education didn't get any worse in many areas and in fact declined dramatically in other key metrics such as teacher shortages, teacher turnover, and college prep?

Hi. My name is Steve Kirsch. You may have heard of me; I founded the Internet search engine Infoseek. But I'm most proud of my role as a prominent philanthropist in Silicon Valley.

I care deeply about education. In the past few years, I’ve donated over $4.5M dollars through my charitable foundation to help educate our students. It's an important investment in our future. 

As a CEO of four companies in Silicon Valley, I can tell you that our biggest problem is hiring exceptional people. It's the key to our future prosperity. And the key to that is education.

George W. Bush claims that he has improved education in Texas. Education has been the cornerstone of Bush’s campaign, the jewel in his crown. He has made it his signature issue, boasting of rising test scores during his tenure as governor and portraying the Texas educational system as his blueprint for America. It is the accomplishment of which he is most proud. It is by far, his most significant accomplishment as governor.

If his claimed educational gains are a deception, that should decisively tip the balance of the scales. It should cost him the election.

Bush’s approaches to educational reform are unproven. Yet the Republicans are touting a report that concludes Al Gore’s programs are the only proven ones. Gore is approaching the most critical issue in America with proven solutions, while George W. Bush is pursuing unproven solutions. I call that irresponsible decision-making. It's no surprise that he's accomplished nothing in Texas in education. Bush is a "Reformer Without Results." So it's no surprise to me that an overwhelming 89% of educators support Gore and that Gore has won endorsements from our most trusted press including The New York Times and Washington Post.

The only “miracle” that happened in Texas was that Bush has been able to get away with telling the story of massive and impossibly large improvements for so long without anyone questioning the real story regarding the enormous gains on the state test scores while all other independent measures were flat or declining.

So while he says he trusts you, his actions and positions prove that you can’t trust him on education, which he says is the most important thing to a healthy America. He has misled you, not on some small inconsequential issue, but on what, by his own admission, is the most important issue in America today.

He says he trusts you. But how can you trust him?

• You can’t trust what he says on his "most important issue" and on other really important things

• You can’t trust him to deliver any results on his "most important issue" (or on the other top issues he's promised)

• You can’t trust him to make the right decisions on important issues

• So how can you trust him to deliver on anything?!?!?

That choice is yours to make on November 7. 

Steve Kirsch
Silicon Valley Entrepreneur and Philanthropist

URGENT: Time is short! Will you help spread the word? Will you forward this e-mail IMMEDIATELY to everyone in your address book ASAP! Here’s how. 

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Full version of this document:
http://skirsch.propel.com/politics/myth.htm or
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Here are instructions on how to verify the NAEP data scales scores yourself. No "fuzzy math" is required! A Texas 8th grader could do the calculation!

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